「贸易战的开始还是结束」考研精读 · 真题级改编 440 词

版权与免责声明：本文内容改编自《经济学人》（The Economist）2025年2月8日期。原文版权归 The Economist Newspaper Limited 所有，本资料仅供英语学习与研究使用。如需查阅原文，请访问《经济学人》官方网站。

原文标题：It’s not over: Donald Trump could still blow up global trade 所属板块：Leaders ｜ 话题分类：经济（贸易/关税） 对标真题参考：2018 年 Text 1（自动化对劳动力市场的影响）/ 2020 年 Text 2（贸易政策争议）

改编正文

说明：以下正文已按考研英语一阅读标准进行改编——删减冗余信息、替换超纲词汇、控制篇幅在 400-450 词，保留核心论点与论证逻辑。

IF DEALMAKING MEANS threatening catastrophe in order to win small gains, then the American president is the master of the art. Having threatened neighbouring countries with 25% tariffs which would have imperilled the cross-border manufacturing that criss-crosses North America, he granted them both a 30-day reprieve. In return, he got a modest boost to border security.

Investors seem to think the trade war is over. For months they saw the threats as negotiating ploys. Then, as tariffs loomed, the stock market fell by 3%. But since the first deal, they have recovered their poise. Unfortunately, that looks like complacency. It would be a mistake to conclude this trade aggression is a tactical distraction. More probably, it is only just getting started.

For one thing, a blanket 10% tariff really did go into effect against China. For another, the president genuinely believes that tariffs would be good for the American economy. He repeatedly sets out his vision for the re-industrialisation of America by force. He wants manufacturers to choose between tariffs and moving production to America—which he promises will be a low-tax, deregulated business paradise. He also castigates countries with which America runs trade deficits, which he calls “subsidies,” as if buying from a foreigner involved a gift rather than a beneficial transaction.

That leads to the biggest reason to fear tariffs: the federal government needs the money. Its deficit in 2024 was 6.9% of GDP. Official forecasts show this remaining above 5%, despite assuming that many tax cuts from the previous administration will expire as scheduled. In reality, the ruling party wants to renew those tax cuts and then some. A 10% universal tariff would raise about 1% of GDP in annual revenue—not much less than the cost of renewing the earlier tax bill. Today’s rules prevent a simple majority in Congress from passing budgets that raise deficits more than ten years into the future. So if universal tariffs were in the law, it might enable permanent tax cuts.

The blow to the global economy would be profound. America holds the cards in a trade war: it is an enormous, diverse free-trade zone with plentiful natural resources. The big costs of a step towards autarky would be borne by places that depend on America for trade. However, the Smoot-Hawley levies that helped wreck global trade in the 1930s raised America’s tariff rate by only six percentage points, and from a much higher starting-point. Their effects were exacerbated by deflation and the retaliation that followed. If a trade war can rage when there is no global slump, what happens when a recession hits?

真题度自评

评价维度	评分	具体说明
篇幅匹配度	★★★★★	约440词，契合考研阅读400-450词标准
词汇难度	★★★★☆	含 complacency, autarky, exacerbate 等考研高频词
长难句密度	★★★★☆	复合从句、插入语、非谓语结构密集
话题覆盖度	★★★★★	贸易政策/财政赤字/国际经济，考研高频话题
文章结构	★★★★☆	让步-转折-递进-例证-反问，逻辑层次丰富
设题潜力	★★★★★	可设主旨题、作者态度题、推理题、词义题

核心高频词汇

单词	文中原句	中文释义	考研频次
tariff	a blanket 10% tariff really did go into effect	n. 关税	高频
deficit	Its deficit in 2024 was 6.9% of GDP	n. 赤字，逆差	高频
complacency	that looks like complacency	n. 自满，沾沾自喜	高频
autarky	The big costs of a step towards autarky	n. 自给自足，经济独立	中频
exacerbate	Their effects were exacerbated by deflation	v. 恶化，加剧	中频

地道搭配

搭配	文中原句	中文释义
grant a reprieve	he granted them both a 30-day reprieve	给予暂缓/宽限期
hold the cards	America holds the cards in a trade war	掌握主动权，占据优势
follow through	making him think it is safe to follow through	贯彻执行，将威胁付诸行动

长难句拆解

Having threatened neighbouring countries with 25% tariffs which would have imperilled the cross-border manufacturing that criss-crosses North America, he granted them both a 30-day reprieve.

拆解：

• 主干：he granted them both a 30-day reprieve（主谓双宾结构）
• 修饰成分：Having threatened… 为现在分词完成式作状语，表先于主句发生的动作；which 引导定语从句修饰 tariffs；that 引导定语从句修饰 manufacturing
• 结构亮点：分词完成式 + 嵌套定语从句，层层递进修饰，信息密度高

仿写：Having outlined the challenges that have plagued the education system for decades, the minister announced a comprehensive reform package.

背景补充

关税（tariff）是美国贸易政策的核心工具之一。1930 年通过的《斯姆特-霍利关税法》（Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act）将美国平均关税率提高约 20%，引发全球贸易报复，加剧了大萧条。此后美国长期奉行自由贸易政策，直至 2018 年起对中国等贸易伙伴加征关税。2025 年，美国联邦财政赤字占 GDP 比重高达 6.9%，关税被视为既满足保护主义政治诉求、又可补充财政收入的手段。然而经济学家普遍认为，关税成本最终由本国消费者承担，且贸易伙伴的报复性关税会进一步压缩出口空间，形成双输局面。